Do you smell that wafting through the air?
That’s the scent of hope and optimism permeating throughout the NBA as the regular season begins and teams eagerly await to see if all their roster moves and draft picks add up to something resembling good basketball.
The Indiana Pacers are excited to get things rolling and to escape preseason and training camp.
“Preseason has been long. Training camp’s been long. Rick’s been trying to kill us,” newcomer Bruce Brown said after practice on Tuesday, “so I’m ready to go.”
Tyrese Haliburton joked that Brown’s comments are because he came from two previous teams in Brooklyn and Denver that were expected to be top seeds so he probably hasn’t practiced in years but was quick to admit his excitement for training camp and preseason to be over and for the real games to begin.
“I’m excited about having some expectations,” Haliburton said. “I’ve never been on a team before that had real expectations. Although I don’t know what they are from people, I do think that some people think that we have a chance to be a playoff team where last year that would have never been a conversation.”
So let’s talk about expectations and have some fun. Last year, I made some ridiculous overreactions after the first game of the season. So let’s run it back, look into the crystal ball, and see into the future with a season predictions edition this year.
The Indiana Pacers will win their first playoff game since the 2017-18 season when they lost in 7 games to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
History will repeat itself! In a good way. The Pacers (42-40) will make the playoffs as the 8th-seed and win a single game against either the Bucks or Celtics.
I know, winning a single game in the playoffs doesn’t feel like an amazing situation but this would be a similar playoff series to the 2010-11 Pacers that lost in five games to the 1-seed Bulls that were led by Derrick Rose. A surprisingly competitive series that gave the Pacers confidence leading into next season as they blossomed into a contender in the Eastern Conference over the following three seasons. This would be the first taste of playoff experience for a lot of this roster and the Pacers first look at what this team looks like at the highest level of competition.
Obi Toppin will boom or bust
I see no in-between for Toppin. Either he will take this golden opportunity with his new team and finish in the top-5 in Most Improved Player voting, average 17 points and 8 rebounds per game with a countless collection of highlight-reel dunks, and earn a giant payday this summer, or his defense won’t be good enough to keep him on the floor and he’ll lose his starting job to Aaron Nesmith as the Pacers resort to going back to playing small at power forward like they did most of the prior season.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Toppin, who flashed plenty of positives in the preseason especially once Haliburton joined him on the floor. Those two are a natural fit for each other offensively, especially in transition. Everyone in the organization seems bullish on the frontcourt fit alongside Myles Turner, whose ability to space allows the Pacers to use Toppin in the halfcourt setting in ways that he simply never could be used with the Knicks.
But we also could see the flaws that may pop up on the defensive end and keep this from being an easy success story. He got tortured by Jaren Jackson Jr. against the Grizzlies and couldn’t guard anyone on the Rockets. He’s been working hard with the coaching staff to improve defensively and increase his lateral quickness but he’ll have to prove that he can survive enough on that end of the floor where it doesn’t outweigh the good he can do offensively where the only question is whether the jump shot continues to improve and is consistent.
One veteran is traded. One is not.
I predict that TJ McConnell ends up being dealt before the deadline but Buddy Hield remains with the team through the season and ends up signing a new contract with the team in the summer.
The primary reason that I think McConnell ends up being dealt is because he’s simply too good to sit on the bench and the Pacers eventually feel the need to give Andrew Nembhard more on-ball reps than are possible when sharing the floor with the always-hustling veteran. I don’t think anyone in the Pacers organization would be excited to trade him but a hard decision is made for the future development of one of the most important prospects on the team.
Hield being traded feels unlikely although it could also open up minutes for rookies like Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker. While offers may improve as contenders get more desperate to add shooting, the franchise ultimately decides that Hield’s value to this team trying to make the playoffs remains higher than what they would be replacing him with.
The backup center position gets a little less crowded in an unexpected way.
While it’s certainly tempting to say that Daniel Theis eventually gets bought out and rejoins for the Celtics for the 1,000th time as his destiny demands, that just feels too easy. Instead, I predict that the team trades Isaiah Jackson as they move on from their second first-round pick of the 2021 draft after already trading Chris Duarte to the Kings over the summer.
Jalen Smith proves inconsistent, Theis remains okay but uninspiring, and while taking advantage of an injury-riddled night, Jarace Walker comes in as a center and gets to showcase his abilities with short roll playmaking and becomes the preferred option as the backup big during a late season playoff push.
Quick hit predictions:
- Andrew Nembhard ends up averaging more minutes per game than two of the team’s starters.
- Bennedict Mathurin averages more assists than turnovers this season. Last season he had 116 assists to 152 turnovers.
- Bruce Brown averages a career-high in 3-pointers made and attempted per game (1.1 and 3.2 are his current highs).
- Tyrese Haliburton misses making an All-NBA team by a single vote, but makes his second All-Star team and wins the 3-point contest during Indy’s All-Star weekend.
- Myles Turner’s scoring averages go down from last season to around 14 points per game.
- Kendall Brown is the only 2-way contract player currently on the roster to get any opportunities with rotation minutes over the entire season.
- Edmond Sumner eventually ends up back on the roster. Maybe a wish more than a prediction but I still believe in the Hype Train who just got waived by the Hornets in favor of Ish Smith.
- The Pacers win their group and advance to the knockout round of the NBA’s first In-Season Tournament. No easy task but it boosts the team’s confidence in the early months of the season. Their group includes the Cavaliers, the Sixers, the Hawks, and the Pistons.
- Bonus prediction: The Pacers refuse to wear their city edition jerseys because they are awful and inspire a league-wide outcry for Nike to stop sucking at this new uniform every year thing if they are going to insist on continuing to do things this way.
iPacers - Indiana Pacers News 
I think you can mark that Bruce Brown prediction down as check already
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I should have said he’d double up both of his previous highs.
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