This has not been the start to the season that the Indiana Pacers envisioned when bringing almost everyone back from a surprise run to the conference finals.

There have been highs like wins over the Celtics, Mavs, and Knicks but just as many lows with losses to many short-handed and likely lottery-bound teams. Now, the Pacers have become short-handed themselves with both backup centers lost to Achilles injuries and the two best defenders of their starting lineup from last season in Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are out for multiple weeks.

While combing through the statistics from a still small, but growing sample size of 11 games, there were four things that stood out to explain the uneven start to this Pacers season.

Tyrese Haliburton’s W/L Splits

The Pacers are only going to go as far as their star point guard can take them and you can see that very clearly in Tyrese Haliburton’s statistics in wins vs. losses per Basketball Reference.

In five wins, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 9.2 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals while shooting 48.8% overall from the floor. Very solid numbers overall.

In six losses, he’s averaging 11.2 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds while shooting 28.4% from the floor. Yes, that number is correct. 28.4%.

The Pacers can’t win with any consistency with Haliburton oscillating back and forth between looking like last year’s version is ready to breakout and looking like he needs a walker—not Jarace—just to move around the court. While he has claimed that his back isn’t an issue when asked about it previously, it’s clear that something isn’t right some nights with how he’s moving and he’s almost always wearing the back brace/heating pad device wrapped around his waist and lower back whenever he’s on the bench.

Haliburton had eight games all of last season including playoffs where he shot less than 30%. He already has four in just 11 games this season. The Pacers are 5-2 when he scores a modest 15 points and 0-4 when he doesn’t. They can win even if Haliburton just has an okay night but they haven’t been able to survive on these truly terrible nights: he’s not shot the 3-pointer particular well in either wins or losses so far this season as he’s made 12 of 42 in wins and 11 of 43 in losses. The games where he’s been able to affect things positively in the paint by getting downhill have led to team success. “What’s wrong with Tyrese Haliburton?” has been a question everyone is trying to solve and until the Pacers can figure it out, the season is likely to remain on this bumpy path.

Pascal Siakam’s not getting the ball enough in 4th-quarters

In last night’s loss to the Orlando Magic, Pascal Siakam was 8 for 11 from the floor with 25 points. The rest of the team was 24 for 73 (32.9%) for the remaining 65 points. Only Johnny Furphy made at least 50% of his looks (3 for 6) besides Siakam on the roster despite multiple players attempting a greater number of shots. In the fourth quarter as the Pacers scored just six points in the eight minutes, Siakam took one shot, a made 3-pointer. It’s a story that happens far too often and is becoming a trend in the data.

Siakam’s averages in the first three quarters in 24.9 minutes: 17.2 points while attempting 11.5 shots.

Siakam’s averages in the 4th-quarter in 9.1 minutes: 3.3 points while attempting 2.9 shots.

This isn’t to say that Siakam is shying away from the moment in the fourth quarter. It’s that the Pacers seem to forget he exists for long stretches. Even when he’s out there purposefully to buoy lineups with four bench players to start fourth quarters, they simply don’t get him the ball consistently enough.

Siakam has been the team’s best and most consistent player this season by a long shot—even with Bennedict Mathurin’s strong recent play—as evidenced by his 4.5 overall net rating being the highest on the team. The only other rotation player with even a positive net rating is Andrew Nembhard at just 0.7 (and Isaiah Jackson at 5.4 but is now out for the season). Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers offense is 10.5 points per 100 possessions better with Siakam on the floor compared to off (90th percentile) and the defense allows 22.3 less points per 100 possessions with him on the floor compared to off (99th percentile).

The Pacers system is built on random, free flowing actions but they would be well served to find their steadiest player with more intention when the game matters most. Siakam’s net rating in just the fourth quarter is -4.4 as the team hasn’t had success with him less involved compared to earlier in the game. The Pacers standard rotation has Siakam starting the fourth quarter, then coming out for a few minutes in the middle before returning for the final four or five minutes to close the game. Maybe they look at adjusting that to see if it makes a difference in him being able to find better rhythm in the fourth but whenever he’s out there he should remain a focal point and not an afterthought in the 4th quarter.

Myles Turner’s 2-point field-goal percentage is at a career low 49.3%

Part of the secret sauce to Myles Turner’s success in recent years has been elite efficiency inside the arc even as his volume went up post-Haliburton trade. For four straight seasons prior to this one, Turner made over 60% of his 2-point attempts. Early this season, he’s all the way down to 49.3% which would be the first time he’s dipped below 50% in his career. The slump has come from two distances per Basketball Reference from 3 to 10 feet (24%, was at 48% last season) and the long 2-point range from 16-feet to the 3-point line (36.4%, was at 61.8% last season). He just hasn’t been able to finish inside the paint but outside of the restricted area like he has previously and his long 2-point attempts haven’t dropped either.

I’m sure you may have suspected rebounding to be the troubling statistic for Turner and while there is something to that (he’s averaging 9 rebounds in wins and 5.3 in losses), he’s right at his career average at 6.8 rebounds per game. Do the Pacers need more from him on the glass with consistency? Absolutely. But it’s not at a level that much worse than it has been throughout his career and he’s still a very good player at his best despite the rebounding weakness.

Obi Toppin is getting picked on defensively

Obi Toppin was a huge part of the league’s most effective bench unit last season blistering teams by repeatedly beating them down the floor and supplementing that with his best shooting season from behind the arc as well. This season has not been kind to Toppin as he’s had to fill-in as a small-ball five with the Pacers out of options at center off the bench and his minutes have not gone well for the team to this point. The Pacers have been outscored by 67 points in Toppin’s 205 minutes so far this season as the Pacers defensive rating with him on the floor balloons all the way up to 123.7 by far the worst among rotation players and offensively he’s near the bottom as well next to fellow bench players TJ McConnell and Jarace Walker at 107.4.

With Toppin playing more at the five, teams have been attacking him more often in the pick and roll, combined with weak point of attack defense from other players, it has not gone well for the Pacers, who have yet to sign or acquire someone to soak up backup center minutes after losing James Wiseman and Jackson. That combined with a slow start from outside the arc (29.6%, down from 40.3% last season) have made Toppin’s minutes rough.