In the NBA, players and fans are often warned not to be fooled by the “Contract Year Phenomenon” when a player sees a sizable jump in his play and production in the final year of his contract to secure another payday, after which his play either regresses back to normal or falls off completely.

Recent examples include Hassan Whiteside looking like a future All-Star in Miami before receiving a massive contract extension, which almost immediately led to him playing incredibly lazy basketball and ending up out of an NBA team’s rotation after five years. Another recent example is Davis Bertans in the 2019-20 season, who exploded for averages of 15 points on 42% from deep in his contract year while earning the nickname Latvian Laser while firing away from deep. Unfortunately, after receiving his extension, Bertans was never as efficient again, got traded a year and a half later to the Mavericks, and is now out of the league.

For the past few years, Myles Turner has seemed determined to prove a point. Often the main Pacer involved in trade rumors for numerous years, Turner appeared to get an escape from other teams wanting to rob Indiana for him in January of 2023, when he agreed to a two-year, $60 million extension to remain a Pacer after openly discussing why the Lakers should trade for him at the start of the same season.

“There were about three or four years in Indy that got stagnant for me where I felt like I was just going through the motions,” Turner said at Media Day before training camp. “But as it may be, I am the motion now.”

“The Motion” has played the best basketball of his career and fit the Pacers’ offense like a glove since the arrival of Tyrese Haliburton. Turner averaged a career-high 18 points in the 2022-23 season and followed it up with a respectable 17.1 points in the 2023-24 season, both coming with great efficiency. Turner became a pivotal piece to Indiana’s success in his first playoff appearance in four years, with his 45.3% clip from deep ranking fifth among playoff players and second only to Andrew Nembhard among players who played more than one round. The Pacers would not have made it out of the first round without Turner’s contributions. With an extension not an option due to the structure of the previous deal, Turner’s heading into a true contract year where he’ll be a free agent next summer for the first time in his 10-year career.

“I can’t help but laugh. I’m going to keep it a stack,” Turner said while laughing at media day. “Every year in Indiana has been a contract year at this point. Whether you’re fighting rumors or you’re staying true to your grind and whatnot. I don’t feel too different because at the end of the day the success we had last year is what I’ve become obsessed with.”

Unfortunately, the start to this season hasn’t been what anyone envisioned for a team bringing back nearly the entire rotation of a conference finalist. The Pacers sit at 5-7 with numerous losses against teams that were short-handed becoming the NBA’s charity organization for win-needy teams.

When asked what he wanted to improve on going forward, Turner stated at media day, “I think a big thing for me, obviously, a lot of people talk about is just getting in there, mixing stuff up, defensively, still being a better rebounder, stronger at that, and then just being as consistent as I am on offense, continue that to keep going forward. The biggest message is just (to) do more.”

If the biggest message is to do more, then it must have gotten lost in translation somewhere because Myles Turner has been doing less compared to past expectations and what the Pacers need of him. While his counting stats look okay if down at 16.1 points on 45.6/39.7/68.2 shooting splits with 6.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game, they do not tell half the story. The reality is that Myles Turner has been playing like a shell of his past self this season with his numbers down in nearly every statistical category and advanced metric through 11 games.

The Pacers’ calling card in the half-court offense for last couple seasons has been the Myles Turner/Tyrese Haliburton Pick & Roll as the duo led the league in assist connections last year. As the roll man last season, Myles Turner averaged 5.8 points on 4.1 possessions per game, giving him 1.4 points per possession. On these possessions, Turner shot 61.3% from the field and scored 62.2% of the time, placing him in the 87th percentile of roll men. This season, those numbers have gone down significantly. As the roll man, Turner went up from 4.1 to 5.5 possessions per game and 6.5 points, but he only shoots 50% from the field and scores 53.3% of the time, dropping him to the 61st percentile. This year, Turner’s habit of taking more dribbles and trying to break down the defense after catching the ball has gotten in his way and overshadowed his strengths, which has led to far more turnovers compared to prior seasons.

Turner’s post-up numbers are also down. While this isn’t something that’s considered a strength or something he does often, Turner had become very efficient at taking advantage of mismatches even if it didn’t always look pretty. Last season, Turner posted up 1.5 times per game and scored 54.5% of the time while shooting at a 53% clip, placing him in the 74th percentile. This season, despite posting up a similar 1.4 times per game, Turner averages 0.87 points per post-up which drops him down to the 23rd percentile. This is primarily due to a skyrocketing turnover rate that’s double to 20% from 10.7 last season. That means, out of every five times Myles Turner has posted up this year, he has turned the ball over once.

This lines up with his shooting numbers from inside the paint as he’s making a career-low 50% of his 2-point shots after four straight seasons of shooting above 60% inside the arc. Despite shooting a potential career-high 39.7% from deep through 11 games, his efficiency is down as he is taking the fewest of his shots from the restricted area, at only 22.1%, but he’s converting an impressive 73.3% of them. In total, 57.4% of his total shots have from from inside the arc compared to 64.4 the previous year. According to Cleaning the Glass, with Myles Turner on the floor last season, the Pacers averaged 121.8 points per 100 possessions, putting him in the 92nd percentile. This year, they are averaging 110.6 points per 100 possessions, a decrease of over ten points and a drop to the 30th percentile. He’s been a microcosm of the Pacers surprising struggle to score points consistently to start the season as they’ve dropped from 2nd in the league to 16th in offensive rating.

Unfortunately, offense is only one place where Turner has failed to deliver this season. Myles Turner has been a negative or negligible impact defender for the first time in his career. Throughout his career, the central quote from critics is, “The idea of Myles Turner is better than Myles Turner himself,” and that quote has gotten the most merit in his first 11 games of the season. Despite averaging solid defensive numbers with 1 steal and 1.7 blocks per game, Turner’s advanced stats do not hold up, nor does the eye test. For starters, despite averaging over a block and a half per game, Turner’s block percentage is at a career-low 5%. Per basketball reference, win shares per 48 minutes and his defensive box plus/minus are both at career-lows (0.015 and -0.6).

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers have allowed six more points per possession with Turner on the floor than off (24th percentile) and the offense has scored 5.7 points less with more him on the floor than off (23rd percentile). For the reputation that Turner has as a rim protector, it is pretty alarming that the Pacers’ defensive rating increases that much when he’s on the floor. Opponent’s shooting percentages from both inside and outside also all increase. Some of this isn’t due to the fact that the starters are missing their best perimeter defenders in Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard but Turner hasn’t been able to make an impact on that end to this point.

When looking at the film, especially during the recent Miami game where it was an epidemic for the entire starting unit, even Turner’s effort has felt lacking. Instead of moving his feet to contest layups and making life challenging on the opposing big men and slashers, Turner routinely gives up on plays to avoid fouls. This may be partially due to Indiana’s paltry center rotation, with Turner being the only healthy center on the roster. Still, there is no doubt that Turner’s passiveness to contest shots once he’s in foul trouble (3.45 fouls per game, ranking 5th in the league) hurts Indiana’s bottom line, especially when their defense is already struggling enough.

Finally, we get to Turner’s trait that has long received the most criticism: rebounding or a lack thereof. Before the season, Turner wanted to focus on becoming a better rebounder and boxing out. As he said on Media Day, “I put on about seven pounds of muscle, something that was big for me this summer, just to go in there and continue to add to my frame and continue to make my strategy every day. I’m very consistent. What I do with my weight room, my mobility training, and just my training as a whole, my discipline. I think rebounding is just a commitment. You can talk about getting stronger. You can talk about this all you want. It’s just a commitment at the end of the day. And I feel like it’s something that I got to commit myself better to doing.”

To this point, the added weight hasn’t helped as Turner is on track for the worst rebounding season of his career. Turner’s rebound average of 6.6 per game is his lowest average since the departure of Sabonis, but that does not tell the whole story. His poor work on the glass on both ends add up to the second-worst total rebounding percentage of his career at only 11.9%—only slightly lower when he was spending most of his time offensively around the 3-point line as a stretch four next to Sabonis at 11.4%. For comparison, despite playing half of Turner’s minutes when he was healthy, Isaiah Jackson only averaged one less rebound per game, had a significantly higher offensive rebound percentage, a higher defensive rebound percentage, and a total rebounding percentage of 19.2%, which blew Turner’s out of the water. Jackson’s block percentage of 8.8% was also three points higher than Turner’s. To sum it up, Myles Turner has been even worse on the glass than he typically is. He’s stated many times that rebounding is about desire and effort.

Turner doesn’t do himself any favors on the glass with bad hands, as he bobbles but can’t hold on to a few rebounds per game. Out of the 11 games he has played this season, Turner has only out-rebounded the opposing team’s starting center twice and been out-rebounded nine times. In one of those games, Taj Gibson started at center for the Hornets, and Turner out-rebounded him. However, Gibson only played 13 minutes and backup center Moussa Diabaté feasted with 15 rebounds in 29 minutes, so is that really a success?

Let’s get some things straight. Myles Turner is a fantastic player. He is the Pacers’ longest-tenured player by a long shot, and without his great play over the past few seasons, the Pacers are not the Pacers. His unique ability to protect the rim and shoot threes has made him a coveted asset for many teams. He has also had slumps before and has even started seasons off on a low note. There is always a chance that he picks up his play and goes back to the Myles Turner of old, spacing the floor, protecting the rim, and helping propel the Pacers offense to the best it can be.

However, it would be foolish to completely ignore this lackluster opening stretch. With Indiana losing three rotation players and their only two bench centers due to injury, Turner has to step up to get this team some extra wins before reinforcements arrive, and he has not done that. With the Pacers unable to sign him to an extension, unrestricted free agency is in Turner’s future for the first time. If his play continues at this rate, would it be worth offering Turner upwards of $30 million per year? In order to meet that market value, the Pacers would either have to trade away pieces of the roster or go into the luxury tax. For the front office to want to do that, Myles Turner has to improve, as he is a big reason why the Pacers are currently 5-7 and are tied for the 8th-best record in the Eastern Conference. The East won’t be this bad forever, as teams like the 76ers and Bucks will eventually pick up the slack and leave the Pacers in the dust if they don’t improve. For Indiana to get back where they believe they should be, they must see an improvement from #33 in the middle.