We are one-fourth of the way into the 2024-25 season and now seems like a good time to check in on how our beloved Indiana Pacers are doing.

Well, they’re not doing great. I can tell you that much and save you some time, but let’s dive into the numbers. Now, I could do this one of two ways: compare the current Pacers to the entirety of last year’s squad or compare them to last year’s squad 21 games in. I’ve decided on a bit of both for when the situation calls for either option. So, without further adieu, let’s get started.

Wins and Losses

The Indiana Pacers currently have a record of 9-12, making them the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and putting them in a three-way tie for the 19th-best record in the NBA, along with the Brooklyn Nets and, ironically, the Sacramento Kings. If Indiana were to keep this winning percentage of 42.9% for an entire season, they would net around 35 wins, which is a 12-win decrease from the 2023-24 season. Speaking of last season, Indiana played their 21st game of the 2023-24 season on December 11, 2023, which was a win over the Detroit Pistons to improve their record to 13-8, good enough for the fifth seed in the East then.

Looking at the wins and losses alone tells you the Pacers have been significantly worse this year, but this season’s decline warrants a deeper dive.

Offensive Regression

The 2023-24 Indiana Pacers were known for their fast-paced, high-octane style of play. They ranked second in the league in Pace with 101.7, second in offensive rating at 121, fourth in fast break points with 16.6 per game, and first in points in the paint with 57.9 per game. Comparing that team to this season is like night and day, as the fast-paced style of play has slowed down to showing its face every other game as opposed to night in and night out, and it shows in the numbers. So far, the 2024-25 Indiana Pacers rank 11th in the league in Pace at 99.7, 14th in the league in offensive rating at 113.8, seventh in fast break points with 17.1 as the league has started playing faster as a whole, and seventh in points in the paint with 52.9 per game.

Sure enough, Indiana’s potent offense last season led to near-record-setting efficiency. They led the league in field goal percentage, shooting 50.7% from the field, ranked ninth in three-point percentage at 37.4%, took the third-most two-pointers per game while making the most per game at 33.8 at the highest clip of 58.9%, and averaged the most assists per game at 30.8. This led to the Pacers leading the league in points, with their 123.3 points per game average surpassing even the mighty Boston Celtics.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said this year. Indiana has dropped to fifth in the league in field goal percentage at 48.6% and 13th in three-point percentage at 37% while taking less than the previous season, with their 33.4 attempts per game ranking 26th in the league. Additionally, the Pacers have dropped to ninth in the league in two-pointers, with 54.5 per game, and ninth in percentage at 55.6%. However, the most jarring difference is Indiana’s difference in assists, as their 10.2% decrease in team assists of 27.6 per game has seen them fall to the 10th spot in the league. Ultimately, the Pacers are averaging nearly six fewer points per game at 114.7, which, while still ranking in the top 10, has not been able to cut the mustard this season.

This also shows in their turnover numbers. While some would say the Pacers played out-of-control basketball last season, their play random brand did not lead to many turnovers, ranking only ninth in the league with 12.9 per game and sixth in turnover percentage at 11.3%. This year, however, the Pacers are averaging 14.8 turnovers per game, ranking 16th in the league and 15th in turnover percentage at 13.2%.

A combination of their offense stagnating after a quarter or two and failure to make in-game adjustments has left the Pacers lost on offense, often going scoreless for minutes at a time and looking far more disheveled than the scoring powerhouse fans looked forward to watching last season. Additionally, the league has gotten faster compared to the previous season. While Indiana can keep up with everyone when they play fast, they often refuse to, leading to offensive droughts.

Offensive Grade: C- (Past flashes show occasionally, but long-term results are needed)

Defensive Woes Continue

Unfortunately, it’s time to discuss defense, Indiana’s biggest problem this season by a long shot.

Let’s get one thing straight. The 2023-24 Indiana Pacers were not a great defensive team. In fact, defense was their main issue for the entire season and partially led to their undoing in the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals. It is hard discussing Indiana’s defense last season, as they looked like a different team with Pascal Siakam, who played the final 41 games of the regular season, so let’s isolate that period.

With Pascal Siakam, the 2023-24 Indiana Pacers amassed the ninth-worst defensive rating in the NBA at 115.7, gave up the sixth-most points per game at 117.2, the third-most points in the paint at 56.6 per game, and allowed the fifth-best field-goal percentage at 49%, and the fifth-worst three-point percentage at only 35.1%. Additionally, the Pacers accumulated the 16th-most steals per game at 12.2 and the ninth-most blocks per game at 5.6 while committing the most fouls at 20.3 per game.

As you can see, those weren’t the best defensive stats, but it gets worse. Let’s talk about the current Pacers.

Through 21 games, the 2024-25 Indiana Pacers’ defense has been nothing short of disastrous. Their defensive rating decreased to 116.9, the fifth-worst in the league, as has their opponent points per game, at 119. While their opponent’s field goal percentage has reduced to 48.5%, it is still the second-worst in the league and not nearly good enough to be a positive. Their opponent’s three-point percentage has also risen to 36.2% as they have given up seven more three-pointers per game compared to last season. Admittedly, the Pacers are allowing fewer points in the paint, now ranking fifth-worst in the league at 52.1 opponent points per game, but with all the three-pointers they are giving up with worse defense on said three-pointers, does it really matter? Clearly, Rick Carlisle, Jim Boylen, and company have not told the Pacers that threes are better than twos in today’s basketball economy.

Defensive Grade: D (Hard to watch at times)

Rebounding and Hustle Woes Continue

Offensive and defensive struggles aside, perhaps a more significant issue than those is the Pacers’ inability to rebound the basketball, a problem that has only gotten worse this year with Indiana’s two backup centers out for the entire season due to separate Achilles injuries.

Following the Siakam trade, Indiana spent the second half of the regular season averaging 42.2 rebounds per game, ranking sixth-worst in the league. The Pacers ranked 16th in offensive rebounds with 10 per game and 22nd in defensive rebounds with 32.3 per game. Indiana also ranked 15th in offensive rebounding percentage at 27.6%, seventh-worst in defensive rebounding percentage at 71.2%, and 10th-worst in total rebounding percentage at 49.5%. Regarding their opponents, the Pacers allowed the 12th-most offensive rebounds per game at 10.8, the 16th-most defensive rebounds at 33.1, and the 11th-worst total rebounds per game at 43.9.

Pretty average to below-average numbers, right? Well, let’s see how they’re faring this season.

So far, Indiana has grabbed the fourth-least offensive rebounds per game at nine, the fifth-least defensive rebounds at 31.3, and the third-least total rebounds per game at only 40.2. The Pacers rank third-worst in the league in offensive rebound percentage at 25.7%, 18th in defensive rebound percentage at 70.2%, and fifth-worst in rebounding percentage at 48.2%. Regarding their opponents, the Pacers rank 16th in opponent offensive rebounds at 11 per game, 14th in opponent defensive rebounds at 32.6 per game, and 14th in opponent rebounds per game at 43.7.

Let’s look at the hustle stats, shall we? In the final 41 games of the 2023-24 season, the Pacers averaged the 10th-fewest screen assists per game with 7.6, 15th-most deflections with 14.3 per game, the 12th-least loose ball recoveries at 4.9 per game and contested the fifth-most shots with 41.8% of the opponents’ field-goal attempts being contested.

This season, the Pacers have the third-lowest screen assists per game with six, the 14th-lowest deflections per game at 16.2, the 13th-lowest number of loose balls recovered at 4.5 per game, and the eighth-lowest percentage of contested shots, with only 36.1% of the opponent’s field goal attempts this year being contested, which is a 5+ percentage point drop. Most of this comes from Indiana’s terrible two-point defense, with only 20.8 of the opponents’ two-point attempts being contested this season, as opposed to 26.9% in the second half of last season. It appears that all those missed back cuts on defense add up.

Rebounding and Hustle Grade: D (Far lazier team than last season)

Individual Performances and Injuries

Of course, we can’t finish this review without discussing everyone’s individual play, or lack thereof, due to injuries.

Let’s start with the hub of the Pacers offense, Tyrese Haliburton. Last season, we saw two versions of Tyrese Haliburton, the pre-injury Tyrese and the post-injury Tyrese. Pre-injury Tyrese was in contention for the best point guard in the league and easily the best point guard in the East, putting up MVP-level numbers and leading the Pacers to win after win despite their subpar defense. However, post-injury Tyrese was a different story. Following his hamstring injury against Boston on January 8 and a rushed return to action, Haliburton was a completely different player for the worst. While earlier, he was driving to the rim and finishing crafty layups and floaters, only shooting the three if it was given to him, this version of Haliburton lived and died by the three-pointer, often shooting himself out of games and never recovering.

Unfortunately, the Tyrese Haliburton we have seen this season has often been more of the post-injury Haliburton, at least on the road. This season, Tyrese Haliburton is exhibiting an odd phenomenon of playing like his usual All-NBA self in front of the home fans and awful on the road, with the obvious connotation being a point for concern this late into the season.

In 10 games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Haliburton has averaged 22.7 points, 9.0 assists, and 3.5 rebounds on roughly 48/43/85 shooting splits. However, in 11 road games, Haliburton is averaging just 11.9 points, 8.2 assists, and 3.3 rebounds on 31.7/22.6/85.7 splits. As one can see, Haliburton becomes perhaps the worst volume shooter in the NBA on the road, as a lingering theory about his back not responding well to mattresses other than his own has perked up, even bringing up ideas of him potentially resting once the Pacers heal up from some lingering injuries.

Speaking of injuries, there have been plenty of them, and they may be the reason why Indiana cannot find any consistency this season. Out of everyone in the opening starting lineup this season, which was the same starting lineup at the end of last season, only two players have played all 21 games, with Myles Turner missing two games, Aaron Nesmith being out since the start of November, and Andrew Nembhard missing the last 13 games, recently returning for Indiana’s game on Sunday against Memphis.

Since Nesmith’s absence, Bennedict Mathurin has taken the starting small forward role and has done quite well. He has posted career-high scoring and efficiency numbers and improved his all-around game, which is a positive individual performance from the season. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many of them.

Back to injuries, Of the 18 (yes, 18) Pacers to play a game this season, only four have played all 21 games, and plenty of others have had to fill in spots due to rotation holes. Quenton Jackson was not expected to be in the rotation, let alone start any games, but he was forced to start six games due to the absence of Ben Sheppard, Aaron Nesmith, and Andrew Nembhard. Additionally, Moses Brown wasn’t even on the team a couple of weeks ago, but nobody anticipated that both of Indiana’s backup centers would go down for the entire season due to Achilles tears.

Outside of the injuries, plenty of players’ performances have been middling to below expectations. Obi Toppin has regressed as a shooter and defender since signing a $60 million contract. Myles Turner has been in the midst of an Anti-Contract Year while logging the same usage rate as Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton. Jarace Walker has experienced the typical highs and lows of a player going through his pseudo-rookie season after barely playing the season prior. Inconsistencies across the board.

The only Pacers with consistent great play this season are Pascal Siakam and TJ McConnell. Two of the oldest guys on the team, McConnell’s sneaky quickness and hustle and Siakam’s veteran savvy, are great but not enough to keep this team afloat alone. The Pacers need consistent play from their stars and Tyrese Haliburton to return to form for this team to go anywhere this season.

Individuals: C (Not the greatest, but pretty bad circumstances given the injuries)

Final Thoughts and Grade

Yeah, this has been a season to forget so far. This was the first Pacers season in years to start with real expectations from fans, and they have not been met. Forget returning to the Conference Finals. The Pacers look like a lottery team right now, and for that, I thank the Basketball Gods every day that they own their first-round pick this year in case of an emergency soft tank.

Every issue the Pacers exhibited last season has been magnified this season with a bigger spotlight on them due to the Conference Finals run. Currently, the Pacers are 1-1 in National TV games, with seven more to go scattered throughout the season. We asked for more media exposure, and now we reap the attention that comes with it, for better or worse.

For Indiana to avoid embarrassment come playoff time when the stakes are higher than ever, they must pick up some wins on the road in this upcoming stretch. The second half of December going into January may be their most challenging run of the season, and at this rate, they may find themselves out of the play-in if they do not get their act together. The Pacers have four games coming up against middling teams, as they currently sit three games under .500. To avoid disaster, Indiana must go 4-0 or 3-1 at the very least because if not, we may be looking at the fifth Pacers lottery pick in six years, and even bigger shake-ups in the offseason, which may or may not include the coaching staff and/or a certain big man who has been here the longest out of any Pacer.

Overall Grade: D (Flashes of greatness, but just flashes. Otherwise, it’s all bad)