Tag Archives: Pacers Analysis

Myles Turner is in a Sophomore Slump

When Myles Turner started this season off with an impressive 30 points, 16 rebounds, 4 blocks and 2 steals in an overtime win against Dallas, it looked like Turner might be ready to make a leap to stardom quicker than expected.

But since that opening night, Turner hasn’t surpassed 30 points (closest is 26 points against the Pelicans in December) or 16 rebounds (his closest is 15 rebounds against the Nets in January). At the All-Star break, saying his season was a disappointment would still have been unfair as the 20-year-old second-year player out of Texas was averaging 15.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game (constantly adding to the ever-growing Myles High Club).

However, since the All-Star break and particularly during the month of March, Turner seems to have hit the proverbial wall and is in the midst of a sophomore slump offensively during an inopportune time for the Pacers as they look to secure a playoff spot. He’s averaging just 8.9 points and 6.9 rebounds in the Pacers first nine games of March. The signs of a decline in his play were evident in February as his shooting percentages dipped from well over 50% for the first few months of the season to only 46%, but they’ve plummeted all the way down to a lowly 40% so far in March.

Lately, it seems that Turner is reluctant to look for his shot in the offense, and you have to wonder if his confidence is dwindling as his shooting stroke from beyond the 3-point line has completely abandoned him. He’s made just 2 of his last 22 attempts from deep after starting the season shooting 40% (33 of 83), and he’s yet to make a 3-pointer in March on nine attempts.

Statistics seem to support the hypothesis that he’s passing up some shots that he would normally take as his usage percentage is down to just 16.2% since the All-Star break after being at 21.2% in the season’s first half.

The only positive from Turner turning down shot opportunities has been his improved passing making more appearances every game. Turner’s nearly doubled his assist average since the All-Star break with 1.9 per game after getting just 1.1 prior and has made many passes that he wouldn’t have even thought to attempt during his rookie season.

Turner’s become very adept at finding the open shooters at the 3-point line, but he’s also making some flashy passes. This assist is from January, but Myles has been making a lot of no-look passes like this one in February and March.

 

Based on comments to the Indy Star earlier this month, this may be a concerted effort for Turner to pass the ball more and find ways to contribute outside of scoring.

“The game has really gone to the five man being involved in pin-downs or pick-and-rolls and a lot of times that ball is thrown to him and he’s got to make reads,” Pacers coach Nate McMillan told the Indianapolis Star. “It’s not shooting every time, but it’s taking what the defense is giving you and making the right read. I thought last night was probably his best game of making those reads of the pick-and-rolls and the pin-downs.”

Still you wonder if the Pacers have gone too far with wanting Turner to pass and if it’s causing him to think too much about whether it’s okay for him to shoot. It’s not often that you see Turner catch the ball on a pick and pop and immediately be ready to shoot the ball in the midrange during this stretch. It’s also becoming increasingly rare to see Turner get the ball on the block while posting someone up (still looking forward to him working with Jermaine O’Neal in that area).

Fortunately for the Pacers, Turner’s still been very good defensively as the anchor down low as he’s led the Pacers to a 5th-best defensive rating since the All-Star break even after the Raptors torched them last night. While he struggles with blocking out as he tries continue to add strength to his young body, he’s still the most important player defensively for the Pacers.

Even in this awful offensive stretch, Turner’s been the Pacers second-best player in terms of Total Points Added with Paul George leading the way by a large margin. You can see how good Turner’s been defensively that he’s still about +5 overall in this metric and how much more value he’s added on defense than any other Pacer.

Last night’s brutal game against the Raptors was a perfect microcosm of everything that’s been going on with Turner for about a month and a half. He scored just three points while taking only four shots as he often passed away opportunities to score and managed three assists while looking for his teammates, but also had two turnovers. Besides the game against Kristaps Porzingis and the Knicks where he put up 17 points and 11 rebounds, Turner has often seemed extremely passive in the offense since the All-Star break.

Turner continued to look skiddish when getting the opportunity to shoot in the first half tonight against the Jazz, but seemed much more intent on looking to score in the second. He finished with 16 points and made more than 50% of his shots. Hopefully, this will carry over to the next game for Turner.

Turner’s improvement in passing and uptick in his assists average is not worth all the points per game that the Pacers are losing by him not being as involved in the offense in terms of scoring. If the Pacers want to make the playoffs and perhaps challenge either the Wizards, Celtics, or Raptors in a 7-game series, they’ll need Turner to score, not to just get a couple of assists per game. Turner finding that balance between sharing the ball while still looking to score and regaining confidence in his shot will be key for the Pacers as they try to lock down their spot in the playoffs.

Advertisements

Rebounding struggles have improved for Pacers since All-Star break

Rebound: undefined period following the break up of a romantic relationshi… oops wrong definition. Basketball Rebound: gain possession of a missed shot after it bounces off the backboard or basket rim.

Once known as a defensive-focused team who controlled the glass, rebounds are hard to come by for the Indiana Pacers this season. Currently the Pacers are 2nd to last in Defensive Rebound Percentage (Percentage of available rebounds grabbed, last place is NYK) and near the bottom (26 of 30) in total rebounds per game. In total rebounds, the first Pacer listed is Myles Turner at #32 overall with next listed being Paul George at #62. So… not good.

Many factors go into not being able to control the boards of course. Personnel, style of play, effort, opponent, etc. And for the Pacers there is no simple answer besides a little bit of all of these. Head Coach Nate McMillan knew this was a potential issue before the season even began with how the roster was set up.

“One of the concerns, or things we will have to improve on, is our rebounding,” McMillan told 1070 the Fan in early October. “We’ve played pretty much a big lineup the last couple of years; we’ve been able to rebound the ball. We’ve got to rebound the ball this year, that’s going to take a team effort.”

When the Pacers win or match the opponent in the rebounding battle, they tend to win games. But that hasn’t happened often enough this season.

This season the Pacers have won or tied in 26 of their 65 games so far and are 18-8 when they do so. When they lose the rebounding battle, they are 15-24. The Pacers magic number seems to be about 43 rebounds a game. Hit that, and they are almost guaranteed to win the rebounding battle.

“It’s got to be more of a collective effort, because we don’t have that big tree down there that takes up a lot of space,” CJ Miles told the Indy Star earlier this season. “Wings have to crash. And we have to help out our forwards like Thaddeus. I won’t call him undersized, but he’s not as big as some other guys and when you wrestle with guys like (the Cavaliers’ Tristan Thompson), you gotta come help him.”

It is not the cure all though to win the rebounding battle though. If you can’t win on the boards, you need to make it up in other spots. Either from the 3-point line or Foul Line.

Recently things have been looking better on this end however. Since the All Star break, the Pacers have tied or out-rebounded their opponent in all but one of their games. (The outlier being that clunker of a game against the Charlotte Hornets).

Since the Pacers don’t seem to have the personnel to consistently win the rebounding battle (no 7-footers on the roster and their center still just 20 years old and growing into his body), they have to rely on effort play to get there and gang rebound or hope it’s a cold shooting night by their opponent.

“We don’t have a lot of world-beaters (in that area), so our team schemes have to be solid, our defensive shell has to be solid,” Assistant Coach Dan Burke told the Indy Star. “And we need everybody to crash. That gang mentality has to told steady every game.”

Effort on the glass is one of the reasons why players like Rakeem Christmas and Lavoy Allen have had so much of an impact in their limited time on the floor of late.

Since Christmas had his first large minutes game against the Grizzlies right after the All-Star break, the Pacers have only been out-rebounded only once. He’s averaging three rebounds a game in 11.5 mins per contest, with minutes coming when Albus Jefferson was out with Dental Work (shout-out to Joe Betz).

Same can be said of Lavoy Allen’s resurgence lately. Since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 18.2 minutes a game when he plays with 7.4 rebounds per contest. By comparison, that would be the best per game average on the season for the Pacers (Turner, 7.1 & George, 6.2).

Without the consistent personnel to win on the glass, the Pacers have to come with a sense of urgency and hustle to win the rebounding battles, end possessions, and start their offense on the break. Which a team run by Jeff Teague should love to execute (think end of the Atlanta game). The Pacers have shown improvement in this area since the All-Star break, and we’ll see if this trend continues or if it’s just a good couple of weeks that disappear into more inconsistency.

Let’s hope the Pacers can continue to play like they have since coming back from the All-Star break and attack each game with an attitude like one of the greatest hustle players in history:

“I’m hungrier than those other guys out there. Every rebound is a personal challenge,” Dennis Rodman famously said.

 

 

How C.J. Miles Saved the Pacers Season

Sharpshooter C.J. Miles saved this season for the Pacers and perhaps even many seasons in the future. I’m sure you’re thinking, “CJ Miles? I think you misspelled Paul George.” And, sure, you’re right; if we’re talking about saviors, then Paul George is clearly Jesus for the Pacers. But C.J. Miles is John the Baptist. I imagine you may feel a lot like Miles below, but stay with me for a second:

CJ Miles shocked.gif

letmeexplain.gif

Continue reading How C.J. Miles Saved the Pacers Season