The Indiana Pacers are 2-3 after blowing a double-digit lead in the second half for the second straight game. They continue to suffer injuries including losing Tyrese Haliburton to a hamstring strain for at least the next two weeks, Ivica Zubac to a sprained ankle that hopefully doesn’t keep him out too much longer, Ben Sheppard’s knee surgery may cause him to miss the entire season, and T.J. McConnell is still working his way back.
All of that said, despite a lot not going the Pacers way, they could easily be 4-1 and feeling a lot better about where they stand. Instead, they’ll be feeling desperate for a win in their next contest as they look to get back to .500. During last night’s live show, Kyle Taylor and myself went through some early season trends that we’ve noticed and discussed whether we think they will continue or whether they’ll drop off over time. You can watch the full segment below or you can scroll a little further down and read the list version with our verdicts.
Trend: Among rotation players, the Pacers with the worst net ratings are the three biggest additions to the team. What’s the confidence level in Ivica Zubac, Kelly Oubre, and Larry Nance finding their footing and being a positive contributor to the team?
Stats:
- Ivica Zubac: net rating -6.7, Cleaning the Glass on/off differential -5
- Kelly Oubre Jr: net rating -3.9, Cleaning the Glass on/off differential -15
- Larry Nance Jr: net rating -12.2, Cleaning the Glass on/off differential -31
Larry Nance Jr. has looked completely washed after not being playable for Cleveland last season with the Pacers being 31 points per 100 possessions worse in non-garbage time when he’s on the floor compared to when he’s on the bench per Cleaning the Glass. Even after showing some signs of life to start the game against the Sixers with some stops on Joel Embiid and LeBron James and a pair of baskets, the team was still outscored by 10 points while he was on the court for the game. He looks completely washed and the Pacers front office may be regretting giving him a guaranteed contract with limited options to move on from him at this point.
Kyle and Derek’s verdict on Nance: Buying the trend, it’s not getting better. From Kyle: One of the things that’s insane about the Nance stats is that Indiana is actually on the good end of shooting luck when he plays: Opponents are shooting 21% from three in his minutes, and the Pacers net rating is STILL -15 per PBP stats. So it should somehow be even worse when he’s on the floor!
Oubre had his best game of the season last night with 15 points on 5 of 10 shooting and yet had one of the most frustrating plays of the game at the end the first half where he waived off giving the ball to Andrew Nembhard and instead dribbled the ball up and took a 3-pointer with far too much left on the clock which gave VJ Edgecombe enough time to get off a halfcourt buzzer beater. A significant play in a 5-point game. The Pacers have been hemorrhaging points whenever he, Nance, or both have been on the floor. While Oubre has had some highlight plays defensively including a block on Myles Turner and his celebrations when drawing offensive fouls are fantastic, he’s looked lost a little too often early in the season.
Kyle’s verdict: Sell, Oubre will improve and be a valuable piece of the rotation especially once McConnell comes back
Derek’s verdict: Buy, Oubre proves to be a piece that just doesn’t fit how the Pacers want to play and think the shooting reverts back to his career numbers at 31-32% rather than last year’s 36%.
Ivica Zubac’s ankle injury is a bummer when that is the biggest new piece of the team that truly needs the time on the floor with his new teammates as they adjust to what he brings offensively and Zu adjusts to the Pacers defensive schemes. The point differentials aren’t nearly as concerning with Zu compared to the other two early.
Kyle and Derek’s verdict: Sell, the numbers will improve over time with Zu on the floor
Trend: The Pacers are tied for 9th in TOV% which while good is not the elite top-3 mark they had in 2024-25. Are the turnovers up slightly for good?
Derek’s verdict: Once everyone is healthy, this number will start to improve but not quite reach this peak level. Many of the turnovers early can be explained by early-season sloppiness and getting to know new teammates.
Kyle’s verdict: Buy, the Pacers will remain about where they are now for the full season.
Trend: Three straight seasons where the beginning of the season has been riddled with injury. Do Pacers seasons just not start until mid-December now?
Derek’s verdict: We hope not, but you do wonder if this style of play with the fast pace and constant full-court pressure is just really hard to jump back into at the start of seasons without getting injured with all of these hamstring strains. It’s a league-wide problem now with the Pacers 23-24 run inspiring the pace and pressure to be upped around the league since that first playoff run.
Kyle’s verdict: The problem of every year being inundated with injuries and a slow start is that when you have new players like this year, it becomes even harder, takes even longer to get those guys used to the system.
Trend: The Pacers ranked 29th out of 30 teams in FT% at just 70% after their first four games.
Kyle’s verdict: Sell, the team will improve at FT%. Pascal Siakam started slow last year and then picked it up. Went 4-4 tonight. This will get better.
Derek’s verdict: Agreed, 5th game already showed signs of improvement with the team making 80% of their 35 attempts against the Sixers, moving them up in just one game to 72.7% and 26th.
Is Jalen Slawson the most impactful wing off the bench the Pacers have? Will he continue to look like he should be in the Pacers rotation even when everyone is healthy?
Stats: Jalen Slawson has a team high net rating of 22.9 in just under 10 minutes per game. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers are 21.4 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court compared to when he’s on the bench. His hustle and hard play that popped last year (100th percentile in on/off differential on the defensive end last season per Cleaning the Glass) has showed up now in games that actually matter.
He even dethroned the king of the chasedown block himself with this perfectly done tribute to LeBron James himself.
Derek and Kyle’s verdict: Yes, his hustle and effort are something that is not consistent with Jarace Walker and playing that hard in a bench role should continue to translate where he’ll be worthy of real rotation minutes throughout the season.
Trend: The Pacers rank 23rd in Rebound Percentage and the defense has been worse with Ivica Zubac on the floor. Do they need to adjust more to Zubac’s strengths rather than try and fit Zubac into their preferred schemes?
Derek and Kyle’s verdict: Zubac has been an All-Defensive team player in the past by playing primarily drop coverage. The team should consider at least sprinkling in more of those coverages to play to his strengths like they have shown they will do with Jay Huff playing the center of a 2-3 zone and keeping him close to the rim. While both agree there are limitations to drop, especially in the postseason and against certain matchups, it’s worth exploring. Both believe the rebounding will improve (and may do so more if Zu is allowed to remain closer to the basket) but that it may not reach levels of even league average.
Trend: The Pacers play like a 59-win team with Andrew Nembhard on the floor and a 14-win team without him on the floor. He has the highest net rating on the team at 6.2 (outside of Jalen Slawson).
We never really declared a full verdict on this but Nembhard has been incredible in all of his minutes this season and the team has really blitzed opponents when he shares the floor with Tyrese Haliburton. Nembhard seemed like a prime counting stats regression candidate while taking a little bit of a backseat to Hali this year but his numbers have remained great with his 3 games with Haliburton featuring shooting splits of 55.2/45.5/91.7. He’s taken another step and looks fully realized in both roles as a secondary creator and a lead initiator against second units when needed.
-#31-
